FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.89 – 236.54

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.5 ±9.8

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 111.77Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 62.66Rank 65Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 1.46Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.3 ±9.8

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 80.18Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 30.94Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 125.42Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 272, 10949, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 10949, 7110

Auto

51.5 29%

Teleop

98.0 54%

Endgame

30.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 10918, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3314, 10918, 8706

Auto

35.8 15%

Teleop

150.2 63%

Endgame

51.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score175.9pts

Blue projected score236.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.6
Score range: 129–284
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 260.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.5Season APEX485.3

51.5Auto35.8

98Teleop150.2

30.5Endgame51.1

145Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	100
teleop	43	79
endgame	76	34
foul	15	0
total	178	213

Result

Final score

178 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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