FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.4 – 147.54

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 515

Prediction missed · off by 278.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.2 ±9.8

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 18.42Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 161.51Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 115.47Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.2 ±9.3

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 76.41Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 16.52Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 54.61Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5113, 2590, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5113, 2590, 56

Auto

40.8 14%

Teleop

166.7 56%

Endgame

88.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 484, 1712, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 484, 1712, 5895

Auto

67.4 47%

Teleop

66.0 46%

Endgame

10.2 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295.4pts

Blue projected score147.5pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.9
Score range: 101–342
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 259.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.2Season APEX654.2

40.8Auto67.4

166.7Teleop66

88Endgame10.2

156Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	77
teleop	38	334
endgame	9	104
foul	10	0
total	105	515

Result

Final score

105 – 515

Prediction missed · off by 278.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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