FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.78 – 215.57

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.3 ±9.3

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 90.44Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 201.64Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 64.7Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±10.4

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 93.68Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 63.57Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 58.32Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1218, 1640, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1218, 1640, 303

Auto

59.1 17%

Teleop

203.2 58%

Endgame

89.1 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 365, 10979, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 365, 10979, 423

Auto

10.1 5%

Teleop

150.4 69%

Endgame

56.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score356.8pts

Blue projected score215.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.2
Score range: 169–404
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 259.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.3Season APEX389.1

59.1Auto10.1

203.2Teleop150.4

89.1Endgame56.8

144Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	27
teleop	200	74
endgame	93	69
foul	5	0
total	363	170

Result

Final score

363 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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