FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.13 – 174.94

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.8 ±10.4

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 92.75Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 67.43Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 40.95Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.2 ±10.4

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 47.86Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 35.75Rank 38Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 91.33Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5438, 10993, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5438, 10993, 5113

Auto

34.1 17%

Teleop

125.6 63%

Endgame

38.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9027, 8075, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9027, 8075, 293

Auto

40.5 23%

Teleop

78.1 45%

Endgame

53.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score201.1pts

Blue projected score174.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 125–251
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 277.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.8Season APEX302.2

34.1Auto40.5

125.6Teleop78.1

38.1Endgame53.8

77Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	27
teleop	156	65
endgame	62	55
foul	0	0
total	232	147

Result

Final score

232 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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