FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.95 – 309.74

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 115.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.6 ±9.8

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 107.71Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 30.69Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 47.55Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±9.8

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 126.37Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 95.09Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 88.28Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6921, 5181, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6921, 5181, 486

Auto

41.8 23%

Teleop

82.0 46%

Endgame

56.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 41, 4575, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 41, 4575, 10993

Auto

45.3 14%

Teleop

171.6 55%

Endgame

96.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score186pts

Blue projected score309.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.8
Score range: 139–357
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 260.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.6Season APEX260.3

41.8Auto45.3

82Teleop171.6

56.3Endgame96.5

192Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	23
teleop	114	79
endgame	92	36
foul	0	0
total	246	138

Result

Final score

246 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 115.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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