FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.04 – 251.19

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.1 ±9.8

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 72.89Rank 23Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 38.75Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 150.4Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645.6 ±9.3

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 70.89Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 85.25Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 95.05Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 75, 1807, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 75, 1807, 1089

Auto

43.0 17%

Teleop

155.1 60%

Endgame

61.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 1391, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11, 1391, 5438

Auto

32.0 13%

Teleop

132.2 53%

Endgame

85.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score262pts

Blue projected score251.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.9
Score range: 204–309
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 261.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.1Season APEX645.6

43Auto32

155.1Teleop132.2

61.4Endgame85.5

106Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	71
teleop	82	163
endgame	32	77
foul	5	15
total	180	326

Result

Final score

180 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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