FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

358.62 – 469.02

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

401 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667 ±9.3

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 125.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 117.22Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 116.08Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.4 ±9.3

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 157.83Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 82.27Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 228.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8513, 222, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8513, 222, 9094

Auto

57.0 16%

Teleop

202.2 56%

Endgame

102.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 9416, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

469 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1676, 9416, 316

Auto

115.3 25%

Teleop

255.1 55%

Endgame

96.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score358.6pts

Blue projected score469pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.4
Score range: 313–515
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 860 vs event baseline 256.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667Season APEX614.4

57Auto115.3

202.2Teleop255.1

102.1Endgame96

119Consistency193

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	97
teleop	211	260
endgame	112	102
foul	0	0
total	401	459

Result

Final score

401 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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