FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.78 – 172.71

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.8 ±8.7

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 102.8Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 95.43Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 72.55Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.6 ±9.8

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 77.53Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 40.49Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 54.69Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 1403, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2590, 1403, 4575

Auto

77.9 29%

Teleop

164.0 60%

Endgame

30.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10993, 303, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10993, 303, 11

Auto

33.7 19%

Teleop

102.1 59%

Endgame

38.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score270.8pts

Blue projected score172.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.1
Score range: 126–318
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 261.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.8Season APEX536.6

77.9Auto33.7

164Teleop102.1

30.1Endgame38.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	57
teleop	207	145
endgame	93	50
foul	0	0
total	384	252

Result

Final score

384 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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