FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

357.24 – 430.44

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

487 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.3 ±9.8

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 127.82Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 132.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 96.87Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.5 ±9.8

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 143.82Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 152.3Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 134.32Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 1676, 6921

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4285, 1676, 6921

Auto

68.0 19%

Teleop

187.1 53%

Endgame

100.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 272, 193, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 193, 1089

Auto

78.8 18%

Teleop

245.3 57%

Endgame

104.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score357.2pts

Blue projected score430.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.2
Score range: 307–480
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 277.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.3Season APEX544.5

68Auto78.8

187.1Teleop245.3

100.4Endgame104.7

104Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	82
teleop	260	218
endgame	140	128
foul	0	0
total	487	428

Result

Final score

487 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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