FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.74 – 234.1

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

317 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.1 ±9.8

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 74.82Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 107.99Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 27.93Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±9.8

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 99.24Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 78.04Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 56.82Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 8706, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 103, 8706, 2016

Auto

27.7 13%

Teleop

106.1 51%

Endgame

73.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 423, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1089, 423, 341

Auto

63.6 27%

Teleop

124.6 53%

Endgame

46.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.7pts

Blue projected score234.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 164–281
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 651 vs event baseline 259.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.1Season APEX524

27.7Auto63.6

106.1Teleop124.6

73Endgame46.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	56
teleop	164	219
endgame	99	54
foul	0	5
total	317	334

Result

Final score

317 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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