FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.91 – 342.99

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 112.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.3 ±9.8

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 170.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX -6.73Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 64.46Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.8 ±9.8

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 151.17Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 128.74Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 63.08Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 2554, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 2554, 222

Auto

63.9 28%

Teleop

130.6 57%

Endgame

35.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 6921, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

343 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2539, 6921, 5401

Auto

63.7 19%

Teleop

184.4 54%

Endgame

94.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.9pts

Blue projected score343pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.1
Score range: 182–389
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 795 vs event baseline 257.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.3Season APEX544.8

63.9Auto63.7

130.6Teleop184.4

35Endgame94.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	24
teleop	237	190
endgame	101	114
foul	5	20
total	447	348

Result

Final score

447 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 112.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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