FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.05 – 225.53

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.3 ±8.7

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 72.1Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 59.21Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 43.74Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.2 ±9.8

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 144.93Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 27.77Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 52.83Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9094, 3314, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9094, 3314, 708

Auto

42.5 25%

Teleop

98.8 58%

Endgame

30.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 41, 223, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 41, 223, 433

Auto

29.5 13%

Teleop

105.2 47%

Endgame

90.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score175.1pts

Blue projected score225.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.5
Score range: 129–272
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 558 vs event baseline 256.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.3Season APEX265.2

42.5Auto29.5

98.8Teleop105.2

30.5Endgame90.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	20
teleop	197	128
endgame	94	87
foul	0	0
total	323	235

Result

Final score

323 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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