FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.35 – 228.4

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±10.4

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 121.48Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 40.15Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 12.72Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.3 ±9.8

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 104.5Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 37.24Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 86.66Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 1712, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 193, 1712, 10584

Auto

47.3 27%

Teleop

63.8 36%

Endgame

65.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 9027, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2607, 9027, 9416

Auto

42.4 19%

Teleop

133.5 59%

Endgame

49.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score174.4pts

Blue projected score228.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.1
Score range: 127–275
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 259.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336Season APEX350.3

47.3Auto42.4

63.8Teleop133.5

65.7Endgame49.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	50
teleop	140	41
endgame	64	33
foul	5	0
total	227	124

Result

Final score

227 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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