FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.57 – 169.72

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.4 ±9.3

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 77.29Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 152.31Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 8.97Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.5 ±10.4

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 94.96Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 25.86Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 48.9Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 1391, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5181, 1391, 10918

Auto

50.4 21%

Teleop

121.3 51%

Endgame

65.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 9015, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5401, 9015, 10979

Auto

15.4 9%

Teleop

90.9 55%

Endgame

57.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score238.6pts

Blue projected score169.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 120–289
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 277.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.4Season APEX372.5

50.4Auto15.4

121.3Teleop90.9

65.7Endgame57.7

70Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	79	132
endgame	26	63
foul	0	5
total	119	214

Result

Final score

119 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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