FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.38 – 157.23

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±10.4

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 28.94Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 4.23Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 44.21Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.7 ±9.8

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 116.56Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 34.29Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 6.38Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 303, 2554, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 303, 2554, 5113

Auto

-7.5 0%

Teleop

60.0 77%

Endgame

25.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4285, 11, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4285, 11, 10918

Auto

17.4 11%

Teleop

102.8 65%

Endgame

38.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score157.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.8
Score range: 31–203
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 255.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.3Season APEX502.7

-7.5Auto17.4

60Teleop102.8

25.5Endgame38.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	62
teleop	70	199
endgame	38	61
foul	0	0
total	144	322

Result

Final score

144 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 115.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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