FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.45 – 198.12

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 128.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.2 ±9.3

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 56.29Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 87.45Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 19.71Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±9.3

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 88.47Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 56.29Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 53.36Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 25, 1218, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 25, 1218, 3314

Auto

28.0 17%

Teleop

97.2 59%

Endgame

38.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 10584, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 708, 10584, 5895

Auto

42.6 21%

Teleop

110.6 56%

Endgame

45.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score163.5pts

Blue projected score198.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.7
Score range: 116–245
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 258.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.2Season APEX472.4

28Auto42.6

97.2Teleop110.6

38.4Endgame45.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	43
teleop	162	36
endgame	76	14
foul	10	0
total	315	93

Result

Final score

315 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 128.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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