FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.68 – 130.34

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 108.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.9 ±9.8

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 68.29Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 32.29Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 22.1Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432 ±9.8

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 32.29Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 66.25Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 31.8Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 10157, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9416, 10157, 1391

Auto

22.9 19%

Teleop

68.5 56%

Endgame

31.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 427, 103, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 427, 103, 1672

Auto

12.1 9%

Teleop

69.1 54%

Endgame

47.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score122.7pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.7
Score range: 76–177
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 259.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.9Season APEX432

22.9Auto12.1

68.5Teleop69.1

31.3Endgame47.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	37
teleop	133	103
endgame	48	79
foul	5	15
total	236	234

Result

Final score

236 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 108.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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