FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.35 – 193.41

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.8 ±9.8

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 113.71Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 117.39Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 20.25Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.3 ±9.8

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 28.88Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 47.14Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 117.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 41, 3637, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 41, 3637, 9027

Auto

41.9 17%

Teleop

151.7 60%

Endgame

58.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9015, 223, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9015, 223, 1403

Auto

22.2 12%

Teleop

137.9 72%

Endgame

32.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.4pts

Blue projected score193.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.9
Score range: 146–298
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 259.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.8Season APEX424.3

41.9Auto22.2

151.7Teleop137.9

58.6Endgame32.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	49
teleop	197	119
endgame	116	48
foul	5	0
total	367	216

Result

Final score

367 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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