FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 132

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.41 – 169.18

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 137.16Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 34.95Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 149.3Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.3 ±9.3

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 55.28Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -16.1Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 130Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 423, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1391, 423, 272

Auto

61.4 19%

Teleop

184.2 58%

Endgame

74.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 7110, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 708, 7110, 2590

Auto

32.1 20%

Teleop

79.1 49%

Endgame

50.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score321.4pts

Blue projected score169.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.2
Score range: 121–369
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 264.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584Season APEX405.3

61.4Auto32.1

184.2Teleop79.1

74.4Endgame50.2

66Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	44
teleop	230	93
endgame	81	71
foul	0	0
total	392	208

Result

Final score

392 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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