FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 130

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.92 – 319.35

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.7 ±10.4

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 125.96Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 66.63Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 24.33Rank 65Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.5 ±9.8

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 68.33Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 181.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 69.28Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 41, 10949

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4285, 41, 10949

Auto

31.8 15%

Teleop

108.5 50%

Endgame

77.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 484, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 555, 484, 7045

Auto

70.1 22%

Teleop

185.6 58%

Endgame

65.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score216.9pts

Blue projected score319.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.4
Score range: 169–367
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 264.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.7Season APEX525.5

31.8Auto70.1

108.5Teleop185.6

77.4Endgame65.8

79Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	66
teleop	82	133
endgame	84	75
foul	15	0
total	220	274

Result

Final score

220 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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