FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.22 – 321.47

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

433 – 377

Prediction missed · off by 127.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.7 ±9.8

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 53.08Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 42Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 139.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±9.8

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 96.29Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 102.89Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 122.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 293, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10979, 293, 316

Auto

35.0 15%

Teleop

143.2 62%

Endgame

54.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 484, 8706, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 484, 8706, 193

Auto

52.8 17%

Teleop

191.2 60%

Endgame

75.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.2pts

Blue projected score321.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.3
Score range: 189–366
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 810 vs event baseline 247.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.7Season APEX597.7

35Auto52.8

143.2Teleop191.2

54.4Endgame75.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	63
teleop	223	209
endgame	138	105
foul	5	0
total	433	377

Result

Final score

433 – 377

Prediction missed · off by 127.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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