FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 129

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

469.02 – 94.35

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 763.9 ±8.7

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 109.1Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 215.24Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 144.68Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±10.4

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 40.96Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 27.79Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 25.6Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 2539, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

469 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3314, 2539, 1676

Auto

91.1 20%

Teleop

267.4 57%

Endgame

108.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5113, 7587, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5113, 7587, 1712

Auto

13.6 15%

Teleop

41.9 46%

Endgame

35.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.91 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score469pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 374.7
Score range: 46–517
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 264.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

763.9Season APEX271.2

91.1Auto13.6

267.4Teleop41.9

108.4Endgame35.7

97Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	17
teleop	207	45
endgame	62	23
foul	45	0
total	411	85

Result

Final score

411 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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