Qualification · Qualification 128
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
343.78 – 233.11
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
277 – 130
Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 115.53Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 180.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 47.57Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 41.68Rank 38Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 42.14Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 149.29Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8706, 1403, 1168
82
/ 100 compatProjected
343.8 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8706, 1403, 1168
Auto
74.8 22%
Teleop
176.7 52%
Endgame
91.6 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8075, 427, 1640
62
/ 100 compatProjected
233.1 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8075, 427, 1640
Auto
52.9 23%
Teleop
124.0 53%
Endgame
58.0 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score343.8pts
Blue projected score233.1pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample294alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 110.7
- Score range
- 185–392
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
502.6Season APEX453.5
74.8Auto52.9
176.7Teleop124
91.6Endgame58
128Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 84 | 52 |
| teleop | 140 | 58 |
| endgame | 53 | 15 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 277 | 130 |
Result
Final score
277 – 130
Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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