FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 124

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.61 – 236.75

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.7 ±10.4

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 34.05Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 87.31Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 11.25Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±9.3

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 82.11Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 77.02Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 77.62Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 10070, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9416, 10070, 2554

Auto

48.7 36%

Teleop

75.1 56%

Endgame

10.1 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 1807, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5181, 1807, 293

Auto

47.4 21%

Teleop

102.6 45%

Endgame

77.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score132.6pts

Blue projected score236.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.1
Score range: 85–285
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 264.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.7Season APEX513.8

48.7Auto47.4

75.1Teleop102.6

10.1Endgame77.5

33Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	55
teleop	44	164
endgame	54	94
foul	0	0
total	150	313

Result

Final score

150 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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