FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 122

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.91 – 173.78

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±10.4

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 31.3Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 15.5Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 65.11Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±10.4

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 75.61Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 43.38Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 54.79Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10584, 8117, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10584, 8117, 10993

Auto

27.9 25%

Teleop

45.6 41%

Endgame

38.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 223, 10157, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 223, 10157, 222

Auto

28.2 17%

Teleop

92.3 55%

Endgame

47.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score111.9pts

Blue projected score173.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.9
Score range: 64–222
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 265.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.9Season APEX291.3

27.9Auto28.2

45.6Teleop92.3

38Endgame47.6

135Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	35
teleop	32	87
endgame	45	34
foul	0	10
total	122	166

Result

Final score

122 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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