FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.78 – 247.63

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 116.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.1 ±9.8

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 156.76Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 78.57Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 119.45Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.5 ±9.3

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 31.33Rank 38Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 118.76Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 97.54Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 7045, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 193, 7045, 3637

Auto

69.4 20%

Teleop

195.5 56%

Endgame

82.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8075, 2590, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8075, 2590, 3314

Auto

64.7 26%

Teleop

133.1 53%

Endgame

51.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score354.8pts

Blue projected score247.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.1
Score range: 200–403
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 265.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.1Season APEX569.5

69.4Auto64.7

195.5Teleop133.1

82.4Endgame51.2

79Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	68
teleop	153	228
endgame	54	52
foul	5	20
total	243	368

Result

Final score

243 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 116.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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