FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.75 – 230.33

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.7 ±9.8

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 254.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 77.2Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -17.75Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.3 ±9.8

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 145.67Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 22.16Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 62.5Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 5401, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 5401, 7110

Auto

62.2 20%

Teleop

164.2 53%

Endgame

83.4 27%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 272, 1712, 41

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 1712, 41

Auto

46.7 21%

Teleop

114.6 51%

Endgame

62.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.8pts

Blue projected score230.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 182–362
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 265.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.7Season APEX427.3

62.2Auto46.7

164.2Teleop114.6

83.4Endgame62.4

115Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	67
teleop	164	131
endgame	96	65
foul	30	0
total	346	263

Result

Final score

346 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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