FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.57 – 208.29

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±9.8

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 66.29Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 61.14Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 139.14Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.6 ±10.4

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 106Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 36Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 66.29Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10993, 5401, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10993, 5401, 1676

Auto

32.9 12%

Teleop

156.6 59%

Endgame

75.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 10070, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 555, 10070, 5438

Auto

26.3 13%

Teleop

128.6 63%

Endgame

50.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266.6pts

Blue projected score208.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.3
Score range: 164–311
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 244.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.8Season APEX356.6

32.9Auto26.3

156.6Teleop128.6

75.7Endgame50.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	53
teleop	190	130
endgame	67	46
foul	0	0
total	338	229

Result

Final score

338 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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