FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.45 – 72.76

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.9 ±10.4

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 51.54Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 93.89Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 46.02Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.1 ±9.8

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 9.69Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 27.6Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 35.47Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1168, 5438, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1168, 5438, 427

Auto

42.2 22%

Teleop

98.3 50%

Endgame

54.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 9015, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2554, 9015, 4575

Auto

11.2 17%

Teleop

30.2 46%

Endgame

24.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score191.5pts

Blue projected score72.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.7
Score range: 25–239
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 264.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.9Season APEX199.1

42.2Auto11.2

98.3Teleop30.2

54.8Endgame24.4

93Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	10
teleop	69	38
endgame	30	37
foul	0	0
total	145	85

Result

Final score

145 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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