FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.18 – 134.76

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±9.8

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 134.66Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 46.07Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 23.45Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±10.4

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 23.67Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 65.66Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 45.43Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11, 486, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11, 486, 423

Auto

31.5 16%

Teleop

125.3 63%

Endgame

41.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7587, 25, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7587, 25, 9027

Auto

29.2 23%

Teleop

57.8 45%

Endgame

42.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score204.2pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.4
Score range: 87–252
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 264.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.6Season APEX309.6

31.5Auto29.2

125.3Teleop57.8

41.7Endgame42.6

86Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	27
teleop	144	57
endgame	95	47
foul	15	5
total	268	136

Result

Final score

268 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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