FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.45 – 284.28

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 306

Prediction missed · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.5 ±9.3

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 35.94Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 174.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 77.54Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.7 ±9.8

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 39.57Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 63.84Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 180.87Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 8513, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9416, 8513, 1807

Auto

77.7 27%

Teleop

141.0 50%

Endgame

64.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10157, 10993, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10157, 10993, 484

Auto

44.0 16%

Teleop

179.3 63%

Endgame

60.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score288.5pts

Blue projected score284.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.2
Score range: 236–336
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 264.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.5Season APEX467.7

77.7Auto44

141Teleop179.3

64.2Endgame60

72Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	73
teleop	170	167
endgame	23	61
foul	5	5
total	283	306

Result

Final score

283 – 306

Prediction missed · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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