FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.22 – 251.43

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.1 ±9.8

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 54.25Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 137.33Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 55.64Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±9.8

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 89.02Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 58.88Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 103.53Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 56, 1391, 1923

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 56, 1391, 1923

Auto

50.3 20%

Teleop

147.7 60%

Endgame

50.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10070, 222, 2607

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10070, 222, 2607

Auto

64.1 26%

Teleop

148.3 59%

Endgame

37.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score247.2pts

Blue projected score251.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.2
Score range: 199–299
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 264.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.1Season APEX414.6

50.3Auto64.1

147.7Teleop148.3

50.2Endgame37.6

67Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	54
teleop	120	83
endgame	39	67
foul	5	15
total	230	219

Result

Final score

230 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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