FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.21 – 362.95

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 715.3 ±9.3

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 106.21Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 217.81Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 137.19Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.9 ±9.8

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 125.78Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 101.37Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 135.8Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8706, 2539, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8706, 2539, 9094

Auto

74.7 16%

Teleop

243.6 53%

Endgame

142.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2590, 5438, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

363 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2590, 5438, 4285

Auto

54.7 15%

Teleop

205.4 56%

Endgame

105.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score461.2pts

Blue projected score363pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.3
Score range: 316–508
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 781 vs event baseline 263.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

715.3Season APEX517.9

74.7Auto54.7

243.6Teleop205.4

142.5Endgame105.1

130Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	74
teleop	270	179
endgame	133	64
foul	5	0
total	464	317

Result

Final score

464 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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