FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 109

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.19 – 302.63

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±10.4

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 91.64Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 47.83Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 75.72Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569 ±9.3

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 68.66Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 91.61Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 142.36Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 303, 427, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 303, 427, 293

Auto

41.4 20%

Teleop

98.0 46%

Endgame

72.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2016, 3314, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2016, 3314, 272

Auto

68.1 22%

Teleop

180.5 60%

Endgame

54.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score215.2pts

Blue projected score302.6pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.4
Score range: 168–350
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 263.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.9Season APEX569

41.4Auto68.1

98Teleop180.5

72.5Endgame54.5

51Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	59
teleop	93	229
endgame	54	87
foul	0	0
total	212	375

Result

Final score

212 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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