FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.31 – 259.84

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.3 ±9.8

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 21.13Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 69.72Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 84.46Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±10.4

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 51.35Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 165.31Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 43.18Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 423, 433, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 423, 433, 7045

Auto

25.4 15%

Teleop

111.6 65%

Endgame

35.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 486, 193, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 486, 193, 10157

Auto

39.1 15%

Teleop

154.9 59%

Endgame

69.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score175.3pts

Blue projected score259.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.5
Score range: 127–308
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 264.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.3Season APEX316.7

25.4Auto39.1

111.6Teleop154.9

35.8Endgame69

59Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	31
teleop	95	101
endgame	37	68
foul	10	10
total	178	210

Result

Final score

178 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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