FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.19 – 156.09

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 85.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.9 ±9.8

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 15.81Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 54.72Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 69.66Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±10.4

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 67.8Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 35.39Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 52.9Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9015, 41, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9015, 41, 1807

Auto

27.6 19%

Teleop

41.7 29%

Endgame

72.8 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 222, 5113, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 222, 5113, 1672

Auto

26.6 18%

Teleop

91.7 61%

Endgame

32.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score140.2pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.9
Score range: 92–204
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 265.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.9Season APEX246.5

27.6Auto26.6

41.7Teleop91.7

72.8Endgame32.8

87Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	115	9
endgame	70	54
foul	45	5
total	242	87

Result

Final score

242 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 85.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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