FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.18 – 387.94

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.3 ±9.3

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 182.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 51.98Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 174.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 676.8 ±9.3

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 156.03Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 139.07Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 92.84Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 1923, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 484, 1923, 8513

Auto

84.9 21%

Teleop

259.2 63%

Endgame

67.2 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1640, 11, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1640, 11, 5401

Auto

67.1 18%

Teleop

222.3 59%

Endgame

85.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score409.2pts

Blue projected score387.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.2
Score range: 340–457
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 265.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.3Season APEX676.8

84.9Auto67.1

259.2Teleop222.3

67.2Endgame85.8

91Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	52
teleop	198	167
endgame	77	72
foul	0	0
total	398	291

Result

Final score

398 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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