FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

219.99 – 491.78

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

326 – 450

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±9.8

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 134.35Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 24.88Rank 38Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 60.76Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.9 ±9.8

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 258.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 142.4Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 91.31Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1218, 8075, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

220 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1218, 8075, 223

Auto

45.2 21%

Teleop

129.3 59%

Endgame

45.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 316, 1089, 10070

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 1089, 10070

Auto

112.0 23%

Teleop

262.8 54%

Endgame

114.8 23%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220pts

Blue projected score491.8pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -271.8
Score range: 173–539
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 776 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX581.9

45.2Auto112

129.3Teleop262.8

45.1Endgame114.8

81Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	100
teleop	160	269
endgame	121	76
foul	0	5
total	326	450

Result

Final score

326 – 450

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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