FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.74 – 79.88

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.9 ±10.4

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 20.43Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 62.78Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 49.53Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±10.4

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 14.15Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 60.84Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 4.89Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1712, 10993, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1712, 10993, 1168

Auto

37.5 29%

Teleop

68.3 53%

Endgame

21.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10584, 10979, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10584, 10979, 10918

Auto

20.1 26%

Teleop

34.8 45%

Endgame

22.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score79.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.9
Score range: 32–181
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 264.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.9Season APEX352.4

37.5Auto20.1

68.3Teleop34.8

21.9Endgame22.7

110Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	32
teleop	79	55
endgame	33	51
foul	0	0
total	153	138

Result

Final score

153 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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