FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.75 – 131.75

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 36.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±9.8

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX -Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±9.8

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX -Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX -Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 433, 7110, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 433, 7110, 303

Auto

39.5 30%

Teleop

65.9 50%

Endgame

26.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 25, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1807, 25, 10584

Auto

39.5 30%

Teleop

65.9 50%

Endgame

26.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score131.8pts

Blue projected score131.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 85–179
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 263.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.9Season APEX402.9

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	77	91
endgame	42	71
foul	0	0
total	140	197

Result

Final score

140 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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