FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

567.91 – 387.54

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 185.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 836.1 ±8.7

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 264.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 89.45Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 214.32Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 757.6 ±8.7

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 80.98Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 167.36Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 139.2Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 2607, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

567.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 2607, 2539

Auto

130.2 23%

Teleop

299.7 53%

Endgame

132.8 24%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 8513, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1807, 8513, 9094

Auto

95.0 25%

Teleop

208.2 54%

Endgame

80.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score567.9pts

Blue projected score387.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 180.4
Score range: 338–618
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 277.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

836.1Season APEX757.6

130.2Auto95

299.7Teleop208.2

132.8Endgame80.4

24Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	86
teleop	112	126
endgame	54	74
foul	5	5
total	293	291

Result

Final score

293 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 185.7 pts

Match videos

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