FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

595.77 – 392.51

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 136.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 836.1 ±8.7

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 274.04Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 98.63Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 223.1Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 757.6 ±8.7

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 83.71Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 168.85Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 139.95Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 2607, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

595.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 2607, 2539

Auto

130.1 22%

Teleop

319.1 54%

Endgame

140.5 24%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 8513, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1807, 8513, 9094

Auto

94.3 24%

Teleop

214.4 55%

Endgame

79.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score595.8pts

Blue projected score392.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.3
Score range: 343–646
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 716 vs event baseline 277.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

836.1Season APEX757.6

130.1Auto94.3

319.1Teleop214.4

140.5Endgame79.4

21Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	100
teleop	166	153
endgame	81	85
foul	0	0
total	378	338

Result

Final score

378 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 136.1 pts

Match videos

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