Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.85 – 211.04

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.6 ±12.2

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 24.84Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 83.21Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 25.8Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±11

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 9.88Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 93.07Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 108.09Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7472, 4256, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 4256, 4329

Auto

31.0 23%

Teleop

71.5 53%

Endgame

32.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1982, 9401, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 9401, 6391

Auto

47.5 24%

Teleop

102.7 52%

Endgame

49.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score211pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.2
Score range: 112–233
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.6Season APEX513.5

31Auto47.5

71.5Teleop102.7

32.1Endgame49.1

21Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	33
teleop	41	95
endgame	26	36
foul	5	20
total	97	184

Result

Final score

97 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Match videos

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