Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.91 – 215.53

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181 ±15.3

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 38.04Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 16.91Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 23.96Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±14.6

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 14.63Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 109.87Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 91.03Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6817, 10322, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 10322, 1208

Auto

15.6 20%

Teleop

34.4 43%

Endgame

29.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3397, 4500, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3397, 4500, 5823

Auto

52.0 26%

Teleop

107.0 53%

Endgame

41.4 21%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score215.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.6
Score range: 57–238
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181Season APEX296.3

15.6Auto52

34.4Teleop107

29.2Endgame41.4

2Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	20	161
endgame	24	39
foul	0	0
total	66	231

Result

Final score

66 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Match videos

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