Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.38 – 78.41

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±11

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 14.42Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 98.05Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 112.91Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±14.8

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 11.18Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 53.82Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 13.41Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1982, 9401, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 9401, 6391

Auto

49.5 23%

Teleop

113.1 52%

Endgame

52.9 25%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8719, 4330, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 4330, 3792

Auto

30.6 40%

Teleop

36.3 47%

Endgame

9.8 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.4pts

Blue projected score78.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147
Score range: 57–246
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.5Season APEX301.5

49.5Auto30.6

113.1Teleop36.3

52.9Endgame9.8

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	27
teleop	57	31
endgame	33	33
foul	20	5
total	147	96

Result

Final score

147 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Match videos

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