Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.67 – 108.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.3 ±19.1

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 31.81Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5060IgKnight

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 18.71Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 21.15Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±16.9

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 25.8Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 53.43Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 29.06Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6744, 5060, 1288

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6744, 5060, 1288

Auto

18.0 28%

Teleop

28.1 43%

Endgame

19.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4314, 931, 1329

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4314, 931, 1329

Auto

32.8 32%

Teleop

47.6 46%

Endgame

22.9 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.7pts

Blue projected score108.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 51–129
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.3Season APEX369

18Auto32.8

28.1Teleop47.6

19.2Endgame22.9

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	35
teleop	19	76
endgame	14	28
foul	0	0
total	51	139

Result

Final score

51 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Match videos

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