Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
71.67 – 108.29
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
51 – 139
Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.3 ±19.1
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 31.81Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 18.71Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 21.15Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±16.9
Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 25.8Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 53.43Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 29.06Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6744, 5060, 1288
46
/ 100 compatProjected
71.7 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 6744, 5060, 1288
Auto
18.0 28%
Teleop
28.1 43%
Endgame
19.2 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4314, 931, 1329
58
/ 100 compatProjected
108.3 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4314, 931, 1329
Auto
32.8 32%
Teleop
47.6 46%
Endgame
22.9 22%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score71.7pts
Blue projected score108.3pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -36.6
- Score range
- 51–129
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
133.3Season APEX369
18Auto32.8
28.1Teleop47.6
19.2Endgame22.9
16Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 35 |
| teleop | 19 | 76 |
| endgame | 14 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 51 | 139 |
Result
Final score
51 – 139
Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts
Match videos
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