Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.94 – 88.45

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±14.6

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 18.67Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 114.28Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 94.99Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±14.8

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 14.48Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 56.85Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3792Army Ants

Season APEX 154.5Event APEX 17.12Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3397, 4500, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3397, 4500, 5823

Auto

46.7 22%

Teleop

124.5 58%

Endgame

43.2 20%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8719, 4330, 3792

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 4330, 3792

Auto

33.5 38%

Teleop

44.1 50%

Endgame

10.2 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.9pts

Blue projected score88.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.5
Score range: 67–249
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.3Season APEX301.5

46.7Auto33.5

124.5Teleop44.1

43.2Endgame10.2

55Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	22
teleop	48	7
endgame	36	8
foul	20	5
total	171	42

Result

Final score

171 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Match videos

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