Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.81 – 69.25

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 103.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±11

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 29.29Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 109.37Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 127.15Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181 ±15.3

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 34.4Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.5Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 19.35Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1982, 9401, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 9401, 6391

Auto

58.0 23%

Teleop

137.7 54%

Endgame

57.1 23%

Strengths

· 6391 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6817, 10322, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 10322, 1208

Auto

12.0 17%

Teleop

29.8 42%

Endgame

29.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score265.8pts

Blue projected score69.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.6
Score range: 47–288
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.5Season APEX181

58Auto12

137.7Teleop29.8

57.1Endgame29.3

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	24
teleop	25	39
endgame	38	27
foul	0	5
total	85	95

Result

Final score

85 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 103.3 pts

Match videos

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