Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.29 – 134.21

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.9 ±14.4

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 27.74Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 81.03Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 24.52Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±15.1

1329The ViPrs

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 32.75Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 51.41Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 50.05Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7117, 4256, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7117, 4256, 4329

Auto

24.1 19%

Teleop

69.0 56%

Endgame

30.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1329, 931, 11195

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1329, 931, 11195

Auto

38.7 28%

Teleop

73.2 53%

Endgame

26.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.3pts

Blue projected score134.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.9
Score range: 112–155
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.9Season APEX416.9

24.1Auto38.7

69Teleop73.2

30.7Endgame26.4

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	29
teleop	76	27
endgame	33	20
foul	5	45
total	144	121

Result

Final score

144 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 12 pts

Match videos

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