Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
213.23 – 207.68
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
157 – 213
Prediction missed · off by 30.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±14.6
Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 13.24Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 110.08Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 89.91Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±11
Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 9.37Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 91.04Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180Event APEX 107.27Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3397, 4500, 5823
81
/ 100 compatProjected
213.2 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 3397, 4500, 5823
Auto
43.9 22%
Teleop
118.6 58%
Endgame
40.6 20%
Strengths
- · 4500 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1982, 9401, 6391
85
/ 100 compatProjected
207.7 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 1982, 9401, 6391
Auto
47.3 24%
Teleop
97.0 50%
Endgame
50.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.43
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score213.2pts
Blue projected score207.7pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 5.5
- Score range
- 186–235
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
296.3Season APEX513.5
43.9Auto47.3
118.6Teleop97
40.6Endgame50.5
25Consistency11
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 36 | 53 |
| teleop | 55 | 71 |
| endgame | 61 | 54 |
| foul | 5 | 35 |
| total | 157 | 213 |
Result
Final score
157 – 213
Prediction missed · off by 30.8 pts
Match videos
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